Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 17.495294 21.195887 25.307968 30.190894 35.804650 42.029899 49.427649
2025-03-16 11.084325 15.550099 21.086825 28.345834 37.492113 48.509061 62.645137
2025-03-23 8.574417 13.470137 20.060320 29.338545 41.793721 57.647440 79.024511
2025-03-30 6.487063 11.325350 18.345269 28.868508 43.780568 63.653008 91.552130
2025-04-06 5.513513 10.516105 18.235231 30.400267 48.379582 73.191122 109.090732
2025-04-13 3.983865 8.450978 15.861608 28.228402 47.385480 74.853383 115.909780
2025-04-20 3.323013 7.691249 15.371660 28.774861 50.296675 82.054090 130.677333
2025-04-27 2.837142 7.131287 15.100205 29.582940 53.594454 89.930348 146.737006
2025-05-04 2.474210 6.723115 15.013175 30.645767 57.315955 98.583303 164.286915
2025-05-11 2.115030 6.231600 14.684584 31.223372 60.245659 106.135054 180.492842
2025-05-18 1.738124 5.598063 13.973503 31.012266 61.801256 111.579622 193.695710
2025-05-25 1.362017 4.852384 12.903414 29.989608 61.844377 114.566705 203.177799
2025-06-01 1.086685 4.313344 12.247492 29.828819 63.651181 120.944805 219.018835
2025-06-08 0.766926 3.516693 10.862578 28.052271 62.430080 122.337274 227.177079
2025-06-15 0.654526 3.314693 10.826356 29.040285 66.383868 132.635448 250.195062
2025-06-22 0.502280 2.898385 10.161639 28.574342 67.499624 138.080251 265.434214
2025-06-29 0.448246 2.826344 10.381261 30.093613 72.590082 150.716874 293.175886
2025-07-06 0.298034 2.256004 9.086689 27.939517 70.137132 149.770827 297.874990
2025-07-13 0.245961 2.095873 8.938350 28.481481 73.218374 158.961574 320.288278
2025-07-20 0.207683 1.980037 8.899007 29.282943 76.892230 169.402977 345.252418
2025-07-27 0.179376 1.900233 8.957640 30.337121 81.172393 181.156795 372.927330
2025-08-03 0.148255 1.776443 8.838662 30.910050 84.438662 191.131803 397.787846
2025-08-10 0.113513 1.589881 8.448334 30.700652 85.949097 197.809131 416.974638